Recent calculations by Greenpeace Switzerland on the remaining CO2 budget confirm that Switzerland’s climate strategy is not compatible with the 1.5°C limit. According to KlimaSeniorinnen Schweiz, the Federal Council is accepting negative effects on the lives, health, property and well-being of the population.
The world is still a long way from limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Even full implementation of the National Climate Change Contributions (NDCs) that countries have so far committed under the Paris climate agreement will only be enough to limit the temperature increase this century to 2.9°C above pre-industrial levels. But if, in addition, the conditional national climate change contributions are fully implemented, that value would fall to 2.5°C. «Major efforts are therefore needed from all countries to keep the 1.5°C limit within reach. Climate protection efforts around the world would have to be almost doubled to avoid a dangerous disruption of the Earth’s climate system», warns Georg Klingler, climate and energy expert at Greenpeace Switzerland.
Swiss efforts are not enough
«The Federal Council conducts its climate policy at the cost of present and future generations. And it knowingly accepts adverse effects on the lives, health, property and well-being of the population caused by climate consequences that are exacerbated by its unlawful inaction. It is therefore dangerous that the federal government states in its action report to the Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe that it sees no reason to adapt Switzerland’s climate policy on the basis of the climate seniors ruling», criticizes Greenpeace.
Switzerland violates human rights
The climate seniors ruling of the European Court of Human Rights ECHR made it clear that Switzerland is violating human rights with its current climate protection legislation because its climate policy is not compatible with the objective of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Switzerland submitted its action report to the Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe in early October 2024 (https://rm.coe.int/0900001680b1ddd9) and mentioned its planned emissions under the heading «CO2 budget».
Switzerland has already used up its share of the global CO2 budget
Compliance with the remaining global CO2 budget is crucial to ensure that the 1.5°C limit is not exceeded. The latest calculations by Greenpeace Switzerland based on the latest figures from ETH scientists show that Switzerland, with its current climate policy, has already used up its share of the global CO2 budget and runs into CO2 debt or will use up the rest of its budget very quickly. «It is therefore incomprehensible how the Federal Council can claim in its action report that Switzerland already fulfills the climate policy requirements of the ECtHR ruling. The CO2 budget presented by Switzerland only says how many emissions Switzerland allows itself at its current price, and not whether these are compatible with the 1.5°C limit», Klingler said.
To the Committee of Ministers, Switzerland justifies its advantage at the cost of poorer countries by pointing out that there is no universally accepted method for the distribution of the remaining CO2 budget. «This is a cheap excuse. Such an advantage is unfair and contradicts the climate agreements negotiated so far», Klingler says.
What the new calculations of a 1.5°C-compatible CO2 budget show
Even if there is only a 50% probability of meeting the 1.5°C limit, and assuming that all countries – regardless of their level of development and economic strength – must make their contribution to climate protection in accordance with their population size (i.e. with equal per capita rights), Switzerland will have only a small CO2 budget left since 1 January 2023. This conservatively calculated residual budget of a maximum of 280 million tonnes of CO2 will be completely exhausted by the CO2 law applicable until 2030 and the Climate Protection Law by 2032. The Federal Council is now planning at least twice as many emissions. The consequential costs of exceeding the CO2 budget quickly amount to several tens of billions of Swiss francs.
If the CO2 budget is divided according to the same approach in such a way that there is a 67% probability of meeting the 1.5-degree limit, Switzerland will no longer have a CO2 budget at its disposal since 2023.
If Switzerland’s economic strength is also taken into account in the distribution of the remaining global CO2 budget, its CO2 debt will grow sharply again, since the 1.5°C budget was already exhausted in 2017 or even 1993.
«The Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe will see that Switzerland cannot implement the verdict without changing its current climate protection strategy», says Rosmarie Wydler-Wälti, co-president of KlimaSeniorinnen. «It scares me that the bourgeois majority in the Federal Council is playing down the climate crisis so much despite the tragic climate consequences. Instead of burying our heads in the sand, we should use the verdict as an opportunity to move forward, innovate and develop a climate policy that resonates throughout the world.»
Greenpeace and the association KlimaSeniorinnen Schweiz want to examine Switzerland’s action report in detail and comment on it to the Committee of Ministers.
